TIA - This is Africa 2010 (Part 1)

THIS IS AFRICA – 2010 (Part 1)

In the world of sport down can be up, up can be down, gravity may appear not to exist for a moment and in another instant the world can be crashing down all around you. In the world of sport things are different. Promises can be broken (See Tiger Woods – Yes I went there!!! He cheated. He broke his marriage vows to his swimsuit model wife. He disappointed his fans and all important sponsers. Yes, I so care...) Rules can also be broken in sports. Most times at a profit to the perpetrator. (See Diego Maradona’s hand and Thierry Henry’s arm – In Henry’s defence, it is called handball. Yes, I am not Irish. And yes I so care about the poor Irish...)

And yes, all of the above is my way of saying that though I promised an article every week, as a sports fan, living very much in the world of sport, I decided to break a rule and a promise. My profound apologies though. I have come to learn that Tiger Woods, Thierry Henry and John Terry (thought I’d throw that in) are not good role models. So from now on I will not be following their “bad” examples.

Without further ado... Let’s begin to analyse and preview the upcoming FIFA 2010 World Cup. Firstly the World Cup is to be held in South Africa, my homeland. How cool is that?? Okay, no funny sarcasm there, it really is ultra cool. Funnily enough, in Africa and South Africa, a unique quality is shared with the sporting world. Rules and promises can be broken. In fact they often are...

So what are the golden rules in a FIFA World Cup? Here is a quick reminder:
1. The home nation always does better than expected. (Yip, my beloved Bafana are well on their way to shattering this rule. I still believe though. I know deep down others believe too... Right?)
2. The favourites never do well at the World Cup. (Spain are the number 1 side in the world and the favourites by default. Have you seen Spain play recently?? Not do well? Not an option.)
3. Brazil are the only side to win the World Cup outside of their own continent. (This is technically a flawed rule. Argentina did win the World Cup in Mexico, Central America – So I’m ignoring this rule)
4. Since 1982 only five countries – Italy, Germany, Brazil, Argentina and France – have played in a World Cup final match. Will this rule be broken? Undecided. Decision pending...

Remember this is Africa. This is sport. Up can be down. Tiger Woods cheated (apparently quite frequently). Hand ball fouls can lead to vital goals... Anything is possible. Really. Anything is possible!! Honduras, North Korea and New Zealand actually qualified for the World Cup!! Unbelievable?? Please come back gravity...

How to preview a World Cup?? Group-by-group?? Okay. These predictions are based purely on football tactics, history, skill and are totally impartial. (Except for any and all predictions concerning Australia.)

GROUP A – SOUTH AFRICA, MEXICO, URAGUAY, FRANCE
Trivia: All the sides in this group have hosted the World Cup. South Africa will officially host the World Cup in 2010. Sepp Blatter said so. Jacob Zuma said it too. You don’t get more trustworthy people.

So who will be progressing to the knockout stage? Not France. Yes, there’s the whole karma thing. (apparently it is handball when you deliberately control the ball with your own arm Mr. Henry) The fact is that this French side is playing in the shadows of the 1998 World Cup winning French team, and in the even lengthier shadow cast by the retired Zinedine Zidane. A draw against both Mexico and Uraguay is the best that this French side can hope for. Then a do-or-die fixture against the hosts South Africa in the final group stage match awaits. That match will be played in Bloemfontein. After their stay in the wonderful city of Bloemfontein, and their match against the Steven Pienaar led Bafana, the French may be glad that they will be going home early.

Expect Uraguay, Mexico and South Africa to fight for the top two qualifying places. By the time of the final group match all four teams in this group will still have a chance of qualifying for the second round. Mexico v Uraguay; France v South Africa.

Prediction: Uraguay to top the group. South Africa to finish second.
Mexico and France to go home.

GROUP B – ARGENTINA, NIGERIA, KOREA, GREECE
Trivia(1): At the 1994 World Cup in the USA, a group contained Nigeria, Greece, Argentina and Bulgaria. Greece left that World Cup without scoring a goal or earning a point. Argentina finished third in the group but still advanced do to absurd rule that the best third placed sides could progress to the second round.
Trivia(2): Outside of the Korea/Japan 2002 World Cup, Korea have only beaten Togo at Germany 2006 in World Cup matches.

This is a tough draw for all the teams in the group. But the team that has suffered most from the “luck of the draw” must surely be Korea. First match v Greece. Second match v Argentina. When they arrive in Durban to play Nigeria their final group match it is highly likely that the mathematicians will have already calculated that the Koreans have no chance to progress to the second round.

The Nigerians will play with great passion and should be well supported. The Nigerian population (legal or not) is considerable in the bigger urban cities in South Africa. The Nigerian football side should sadly leave South Africa well before their immigrant countrymen. This is not the great Nigerian side of Okocha and Oliseh. Do not get too excited about the Nigerian’s chances.

So this group has been termed the “group of death”. It shouldn’t be though. By the time the final game between Greece and Argentina kicks off, we’ll know that both these sides have already qualified for the knockout phase. Unlike most, I do not see Argentina progressing much further than quarter-finals at best and if Greece get that far it would be an achievement. (Really it will. Ask your Greek friend? You don’t have one?? Well they’d lie anyway.)

Prediction: Argentina and Greece to progress (Not very far though)
Korea and Nigeria to stumble out.

GROUP C – ENGLAND, USA, ALGERIA, SLOVENIA
Trivia(1): Algeria were the underdogs when they beat their fierce rivals Egypt in a play-off match to qualify for the 2010 World Cup.
Trivia(2): Slovenia were the underdogs when they beat their fierce rivals Russia in a play-off match to qualify for the 2010 World Cup.

Trivia(3): The last time that England played against the USA at the World Cup, the USA won.
The underdogs vs the favourites. That is how this group is shaping up. Oh, I do smell an upset... And if there is going to be a favourite that bows out in this group, the feeling is that it will be the arrogant English. The USA have proven that they are a strong soccer nation (eg. Confederations Cup 2009). England will arrive with their Premier League stars, a “has-been” from Milan and all the wives and girlfriends. (Hmm... trouble?)

Perhaps the most interesting factor in this group is that the 2nd placed side will go on to face the 1st placed side in the group of Germany, Ghana, Serbia and Australia. An early England exit (I like..). An England v Germany 2nd round knockout game (I like more..) I can picture Wayne Rooney missing the vital kick in the penalty shoot-out vs Germany already. (Quick fact: Germany have never lost a penalty shootout in competitive competition – EVER)
The darkhorse in the group is Algeria. Expect the Algerians to cause the USA and England to earn their places in the 2nd round. Also, expect Algeria to self-destruct in the final group game vs the USA in Pretoria. (“not that type of self-destruct Mr. Bin Laden”)

Prediction: England to top the group followed by the USA (“No upset. Sigh.”)
Algeria and Slovenia. Thanks for coming.

GROUP D – GERMANY, AUSTRALIA, SERBIA, GHANA
Trivia(1): The game between Serbia and Australia will be a fierce rivalry. How so? Eastern Europeans vs Australia? Consider the fact that hundreds of Australian sportsmen an women are formerly from the old Yugoslavia. The Serbs hate the Australians. The game will be hot. Red hot!
Trivia(2): I don’t like Australia or Australians.
Trivia(3): Australia are the bullies of World Soccer. They qualified in the Asian regional qualifiers by physically bullying the less physical Asian nations on the soccer field. Can they use such physical tactics against Germany, Serbia and Ghana? Sure they can, and they will try. Can they be successful with that tactic in this group... (Think Ballack, Vidic, Essien – Okay now picture Ballack, Vidic, Essien) Nope, don’t think that tactic will work. Sorry Mate.

This is the group of death. There is no group favourite and really all we know for sure is that Australia won’t be staying long in South Africa. (Big Smile) Between Ghana, Germany and Serbia a coin flip could decide who will progress. Ghana’s remarkable performance at the recent Afcon in Angola, where they made the final with practically just their under 23 players, puts them through. Germany for... well being Germany get the nod over Serbia.

Prediction: Ghana inspired by the African World Cup top the group. Germany finish 2nd and paly England in the last 16. Wayne Rooney misses a crucial penalty and the English cry off home, again. (I love that look on the English faces when they get knocked out. That “we’re English – give our ball back” look. Love it.)
Serbia and Australia to fight on the plane home.